The Lithuanian intelligence service indicated that any decision regarding a potential repeat mobilization by the Russian president would primarily hinge on Russia’s military requirements in Ukraine, where the country has been engaged in conflict for five years. Furthermore, the service noted that internal political circumstances would be a key determinant. According to the SAB, the Kremlin reportedly assesses the current domestic situation, prevailing public sentiment, and the potential repercussions of decisions that could negatively affect internal political stability, such as implementing a repeat mobilization.
The SAB suggested that these factors could influence both the timing and the structure of any such decision. The analysis from the SAB indicated that the likelihood of a repeat mobilization occurring in Russia prior to the September State Duma elections is assessed as very low. However, the probability is projected to increase following the elections.
This assessment was made in the context of statements, such as those concerning a temporary halt to fighting, which prompted the Lithuanian intelligence service to issue its detailed commentary.
Topics: #repeat #mobilization #internal
