The recent agreement between the United States and Iran was viewed by financial markets as a positive development; however, the geopolitical situation remains highly volatile. Ongoing tensions frequently disrupt diplomatic efforts due to actions originating from Israel, the US, or Iran. These instabilities have had notable repercussions for commercial shipping routes.
Despite the underlying fragility, maritime activity has shown signs of moderate recovery in key chokepoints. Specifically, the recorded number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has been steadily rising. Approximately 200 vessels were documented passing through last week.
While this figure represents only a quarter of the typical volume, it marks a significant increase compared to periods of heightened conflict when traffic approached near-zero levels. Experts suggest that if the current truce holds, the full normalization of shipping traffic could require a period of one year or more. In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, optimism is emerging from Qatar’s stated intentions to resume exports relatively quickly.
Nevertheless, the full recovery of the market is expected to be protracted due to existing damage to production capacity. Furthermore, the combination of a delicate truce and depleted reserves that require rapid restoration is expected to prevent crude oil prices from swiftly returning to the $60 mark.
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